Are Germany’s policies toward China about to change?

China is by far Germany’s most important trading partner. Perhaps this, more than any other factor, explains why Angela Merkel’s government carefully avoided the confrontational approach that the US has taken toward China in recent years. But could Germany’s more conciliatory approach to China begin to change under a new government? A study by the Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) takes a stab at this question by investigating the election platforms of the main political parties.

[You can read a press release of this study (in German) from September 17, 2021 here.]

[Text in blue below has been translated from German by Randal Gernaat.]

After one of the most consequential and unpredictable parliamentary elections in decades, German voters had their say on September 26 and the arduous process of forming a new coalition government has now begun. Several key trends were evident in the results. First, the combined vote of the establishment parties, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU), continued its decades-long downward trend. Second, unlike in other Western democracies recently, Germany did not experience a rise in populism in this election. In fact, the populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party fell from third place to fifth place. Third, there was a large generational gap in the election results with the youth vote swinging heavily to the center-left Green Party and the center-right (economic) liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP), each of which easily surpassed votes for the two establishment parties.

The next government will most likely include the resurgent Greens and FDP in a 3-way coalition with either the center-left SPD or the center-right CDU/CSU. While the Greens and FDP have a lot of momentum behind their combined efforts to form a new government, on policy issues they remain far apart. One of the few things that unites these two parties, beyond legalization of marijuana, is their tougher stance toward both Russia and China.

A recent study of the election platforms of all the main German political parties undertaken by Frank Bickenbach and Dr. Wan-Hsin Liu from the International Trade and Investment Research Center of IfW Kiel entitled “China: Partner, Competitor, Systemic Rival - What do the Election Platforms Say?” signals Germany’s stance toward China might be about to change. If the Greens and FDP are part of the next government, a situation that seems highly likely at this point, we could see a more critical federal government policy stance toward China.

“Compared with the current administration’s course, a government that includes the FDP and/or the Greens would entail a greater potential for conflict with China,” observed Dr. Liu. The FDP and Greens have taken a more critical stance toward China in several specific areas of their election platforms, including: “the ratification of the EU-China investment treaty known as the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI), the participation of Chinese firms in the development of the European 5G network and individual sanctions against Chinese officials responsible for serious human rights’ violations or breaches of international law.”

Of course, a party’s election platform can differ significantly from their actual policies once in power. And the authors do allude to the fact that opinions within the establishment parties are not monolithic, pointing out that the SPD and CDU/CSU party platforms also “criticize China’s geostrategic power ambitions, violations of human rights and international law as well as their unfair trade and competition practices.” And that “silence on the part of the governing parties regarding certain specific conflicts with China should not necessarily be interpreted as uniform support for a continuation of the pragmatic, national-interest-focused China policies of the current government under Angela Merkel, since China-critical voices from within these parties could become increasingly prevalent.”

To be certain, foreign policy, including relations with China, barely figured into the election campaign. And the details of a new coalition government are still far from being hashed out. But given the momentum of the FDP and the Greens, it would not be unreasonable to assume that the next German government might be both less accommodating and more critical of China than in the past.